By Dmitry Trenin
Over the past year, Russian analysts have effectively become
Trumpologists. Every statement from the US president, often several a
day, is dissected and debated in real time. Since Donald Trump’s remarks
frequently contradict one another, following his train of thought can
feel like a virtual roller coaster ride – dizzying, unpredictable – yet
impossible to ignore.
But one should not get carried away by the spectacle. Trump’s tactics
are straightforward. He can be abrasive and threatening one moment,
charming and conciliatory the next. At times he presents himself as “one of us,” at others as “one of them.” The real question is whether there is a coherent strategy behind this
chaos. Nine months into his second term, there is enough evidence to
draw some cautious conclusions.
First, Trump’s ultimate goal is personal glory. He wants to go down
as the greatest president in US history – the man who restored America’s
dominance and reshaped global politics. His strategic vision begins and
ends with his own legacy.
Second, he is determined to suppress America’s economic rivals. In
this, his policies are blunt but consistent: tariffs, trade wars, and
the repatriation of production to US soil. For Trump, global competition
is not about mutual gain but national survival.
Third, and most relevant for Russia, Trump wants to be seen as a global peacemaker. But in his vocabulary, “peace”
really means truce. He is not interested in complex negotiations or
long-term settlements. His aim is to get all sides into one room, stage a
handshake, declare victory, and move on. Once the cameras are gone, the
details, and the responsibility, are left to others. Should conflict
resume, Trump can say he brought peace; it was others who spoiled it.
This formula does not work with Russia. Moscow has tried to explain
to the US president the real origins of the Ukrainian crisis – and that
Russia’s conditions for peace are not “maximalist” demands but
the minimum basis for a lasting settlement. Trump, however, is
uninterested in history or nuance. His focus is always the immediate
result, the headline moment. After eight months of dialogue, progress
remains intermittent at best.
There are also external limits to Trump’s freedom of action. For all his bluster, he is neither “the king of America” nor “the emperor of the West.” He cannot ignore Washington’s entrenched anti-Russian consensus, shared by Democrats and many in his own Republican Party [ED and their billionaire backers]. Nor can he completely disregard US allies in Europe, however little he
may respect them. Despite his self-image as a political maverick, Trump
is still constrained by the machinery of the American establishment.
Even so, the “special diplomatic operation” – Moscow’s
direct dialogue with the Trump administration – has served its purpose. It has demonstrated to Russia’s partners that Moscow is genuinely
committed to a fair and durable peace. It has shown Russia’s soldiers
and citizens that their leadership continues to pursue the declared
objectives of the Ukraine military operation. And it has clarified for
the Kremlin the limits of Trump’s real power.
The talks may have slowed, but communication continues along two
channels – Lavrov-Rubio and Dmitriev-Witkoff. Yet diplomacy, as ever, is
not a substitute for strength. Its purpose is to consolidate what has
been achieved on the battlefield. A diplomatic operation can assist, but
it cannot replace, a military one.
[…]
Via https://www.rt.com/news/627078-dmitry-trenin-trumps-diplomacy/
